While it is
the policy of this publication to report the news and not interfere in the
activities of the Meat Space, it is the explicit belief of the Writer that his
thoughts accidentally control the Universe and that if he openly states a prediction
or opinion with any confidence, Reality will reorganize itself for the sole
purpose of spoiling it. Therefore, out of an abundance of caution for the
millions of lives at stake, the publication of this entry has been withheld
until after the US Presidential electoral contest or alcohol-related death of
the Writer, whichever starts - or ends – first
The Hour of the Wolf, the dearly departed Max von Sydow once
explained in Ingmar Bergman's underrated horror flick of the same name, is the
hour between night and dawn. The hour when most people die, when sleep is
deepest, when nightmares are most real. It is the hour when the sleepless are
haunted by their deepest fears, when ghost and demons are most powerful.
The hour of the wolf is also the hour when most children are
born.
* * * * *
I can remember it vividly: It was 6pm, I was standing on the
street corner with a friend of mine, on the way to the bar we’d booked to watch
the 2016 election. We were so sure of the result. We were so sure. We’d even made last minute adjustments to our pool picks,
it sounded like Clinton was probably going to win Florida, after all. I took a
long deep drag of a cigarette, threw it on the ground, and stomped it out. “Alright,”
I said, “Let’s go watch this fucker get taken down.”. By 2am I was sitting,
alone in my living room, staring at my phone. Three bottles of champagne in the
fridge and a few cigars in the humidor, waiting for an afterparty that never
materialized. It was the end of Western civilization, they’d pulled the whole
temple down on themselves.
If nothing else, the 2020 election cycle is giving us all a
chance to re-examine the assumptions and understandings we previously took for
granted. We're revisiting what polls are important and the need to look at
state-level predictions and not just the national picture. We're learning how
states count ballots and how cable newsrooms determine when and how to call the
races. I'm about to find out just how bloated my liver and heart can get before
each rip themselves out of my carapace and crawl away.
These are all important pieces of data to have.
As I write this, I don't know who won the Presidential
contest (if, indeed, anyone has yet), and I don't really know how they did it
(or didn't). I don’t know what the senate or anything looks like. I've had many
thoughts though - oh, yes - but I dare not put them on paper or speak them out
loud. I've become neurotically superstitious about US elections (all elections,
really, but few have the power to vaporize me in atomic backwash), and I'm
convinced that basically anything I say will jinx it. If I tell you I think
Biden will win 350 electoral college votes he'll lose every state, if I tell
you Trump will win 350 electoral college votes, he will. There's no winning against
this impossible universe.
So I'm trapped in my own Hour of the Wolf, it seems. All
bets are off. There are no rules. I have no idea what will actually happen and my imagination is running rampant with all
sorts of possibilities I'd never had to consider before. Civil War II? Scorched
Earth Lame Duck Presidency? It's like my first time all over again - on one
hand unbelievably exciting; on the other, absolutely terrifying.
For the last few months I’ve been scribbling out little
notes to myself. Thoughts on how the race and campaign was developing. Some of
it literally scratched out on random pieces of paper around my pandemic bunker
apartment, others as three or four sentences sitting in a draft blog post,
seeping through in a tweet or two. What follows here then are some of these
notes, condensed and smoothed out, and somewhat organized. Just things that
have been in my head that I need to get out before I burst. By the time you
read them the die will have already been cast and hopefully I can’t fuck any of
it up, we're just waiting for the universe to unfold now.
*****
Let's start off with the basics: it seems impossible to me
that Donald Trump can conceivably win the popular vote. Not just because the
polls clearly don't suggest that, but because little in the past 4 years
strikes me as likely to make very few groups of people MORE pro-Trump but many
groups of people substantially LESS pro-Trump. Additionally, the polls
consistently point to a sizeable shift in some groups compared to 2016 (heck, compared
to 2019): Biden ties or leads or comes much closer among all age groups, among
white women, among men, in nearly in all regions than Clinton did 4 years ago.
Of course it can all be hogwash but it agrees with the fundraising numbers, and
it jives with the bizarre Grand Coalition the Biden campaign has stitched
together where I now receive emails from Bill Clinton-era cabinet secretaries,
Bernie Sanders and the AOC squad, and Bush II administration war criminals all
on the same day and all pushing support for the same ticket.
I’m old enough to remember declaring that demographics would
make Texas a toss up state after 2012 and that Romney represented the last hope
of a Republican party determined to focus entirely on older white men.
Obviously I was wrong then and I’m far too spooked to make such a bold claim yet,
but it’s hard to imagine that the damage Trump and his enablers in the GOP have
done to their credibility among huge and growing portions of the electorate –
in particular women - will be soon forgotten or undone. That so much of this
goes hand in hand with enabling the kind of tin pot authoritarianism of a young
adult dystopian novel, I think, makes the damage that much more permanent. We
can’t go back to the way things were, not while McConnell and Graham and
Sessions and Pompeo and Cruz and Rubio still draw any water in that party.
The 2016 election was like finding out your neighbor did
time as an axe murderer. It doesn’t matter how polite they are or how good a
neighbor they are now, you’re never letting your kids go over there alone.
*****
The electoral college is trickier to predict, but here
history helps calm my nerves. There are three states Trump won in 2016 which
were surprising - and incredibly close - upsets, which control the balance of
electoral college, and which had been Democratic states for many years
beforehand. Biden not only keeps polling in the lead in all three but tied or
leading in a bunch of other states too. Trump likely needs to sweep all of the
5-8 genuine battleground states, Biden only needs to pick up a few of them, and
the poll suggest he has a few strong prospects to choose from.
The X factor to me is the unbridled, unmitigated, bald-faced
fascism of the ailing husk of the Republican party. What depraved depths are
they willing to go to in order to cheat their way into a few more years of
power? Throwing out ballots is small potatoes for these goons, so surely
nonsense lawsuits and armed insurrection come as second nature to them. They're
all Sons of the Confederacy anyway, getting shot to death by the National Guard
is practically a family tradition.
The campaign itself has been a whole different roller
coaster. Issues, dear boy, issues. It's only early November as I write this but
already the week the President had covid
seems like a distant memory, but it was less than a month ago. At the time it
seemed like it could have been a craven attempt to gain public sympathy but I
don't think so - the last thing the Trump campaign needed was anyone to be
reminded that the bodies are piling up in the morgues and this pandemic is
raging on unchecked (as I type this I see Ragin' Cajun' Jim Carville has just
tried to coin "it's the pandemic, stupid!" and predicted Trump will
be the loser by 10pm on election night. Carville is my kind of crazy but I'm
not putting any money on that). The pandemic is hitting the pro-Trump places
who until recently insisted the virus didn't exist, and I think that reality is
unravelling the whole narrative Trumpers have been using to hold their world
together.
Hunter Biden too, seems to be largely a miss by the
Republican strategists and the closer they cling to it the more desperate they
seem. The accusations of cronyism or corruption or insurmountable entrenched
entitlement stuck harder against Hillary Clinton because she was, after all -
despite an exceptional career in her own right - a career politician who got
her start in politics from the starboard side of her husband's White House and
was not very successful at hiding the deep rooted belief that it was her turn, both in 2008 or in 2016. The
Clinton family has always seemed like the real life analogy for House of Cards'
viciously ambitious Underwoods and the more they replicated that imagery the
easier it was to make the more ludicrous accusations against her stick.
By way of contrast, the Hunter Biden story largely seems to
remind people that Joe Biden has always been a remarkably kind and well-liked
family man who has endured significant personal loss but still managed to do
his duty while being a loving parent. Every time they try to make hay of the
father-son relationship (candid photos! leaked text messages!), voters get a
peek at what it would be like to have a caring, human father in the Oval Office
instead of the cheating, groping, crude, child abusive sociopath they have now.
I was reminded of the Conservative attack ads of our own 2015 campaign:
"Look at Justin Trudeau, look how HANDSOME
he is and look at all of the disgusting NORMAL
JOBS he's had before just like you! Outrageous! Vote for our boring robot
leader with a titanium golf club wedged up his ass and who absolutely hates
you."
It's almost hard to see why it's not resonating.
At least not with everyone, mind you. Clearly there's a
significant portion of the US electorate firmly willing to be thrown into a
burning cauldron and reduced to their bones for their beloved Fuhrer. We've
seen it throughout this campaign but it's reaching a particular fervor at the
close...the Y'all Quieda trucks draped in Trump flags trying to surround Biden
campaign busses (a comparison to Al Quieda is actually unfair, in my opinion,
as doubtless the American version insist on using Made in America trucks which
is fucking insane. Any good fanatic knows the value of a used Toyota Hilux), or
legions of supporters trapped after their covid superspreader rallies in the
cold and dark by a campaign that actively hates them, is trying to murder
everyone, and hasn't been afraid to hide it. To each their own: My advice to
the die-hard Republican supporters is to go on and die.
But back to Covid. Carville's not wrong - the pandemic is
the prism through which the entire election has turned. It perfectly exposed
the administration's complete idiocy and willful negligence. It drew a perfect
contrast between the calm, steady, competent experience of a caring former Vice
President and the indefensible childlike tantrums of the dementia addled
corrupt incumbent. It's been raising the stakes all year and giving regular
folks on the ground the growing understanding that nonsense comes out of
whichever failed amateur pornstar is currently briefing from the White House
podium is disconnected from their reality and is entirely self-serving.
*****
So that's what I've got. I said at the start I don't know
what's going to happen. I still don't. It's the Hour of the Wolf and it may be
rapturous or catastrophic but you came for some thoughts and maybe a prediction
so here it is: Biden reclaims Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That's
enough to end it, but I believe that one or two of Georgia, Florida, North
Carolina, Texas, and Arizona will flip too and seal the deal with ~300
electoral college votes. That's what SHOULD happen, anyway, if I haven't fucked
it up by typing this all out.
Christ I hate this. I will see you on the other side.